In Ukraine, a program to add 10% bioethanol (E10) to gasoline with an octane rating of less than 98 may be launched very soon, since the E5 program does not justify its main goal - to stimulate the use of Ukrainian bioethanol, and also goes against European standards, believes Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

"For some reason, it seems to me that E10 will be introduced in our country very quickly. The main driver of the E5 program was farmers who openly lobbied for this project due to serious problems with exports, especially corn, and wanted to increase the consumption of this raw material in Ukraine. Bioethanol is one of the options. But currently, most filling stations have chosen to import a ready-made mixture from Europe. But in order for this program to become more effective, so that those who dare to use bioethanol in Ukraine, and there are some, buy more of it, then the E10 program can be adopted sooner. In order to increase the use of Ukrainian bioethanol, albeit in minimal volumes," Kuyun said during a briefing at the Media Center of Ukraine in Kyiv on Tuesday.

He explained that after the introduction of the mandatory addition of 5% bioethanol to gasoline with an octane number of less than 98 on May 1, fuel is already supplied with European bioethanol, since gas station networks do not want to take risks and develop a powerful infrastructure for mixing gasoline with bioethanol due to military operations, let alone gasoline production in Ukraine.

"More than 70 oil depots, all refineries were attacked. Just a couple of weeks ago, a terminal was attacked in Odessa, there is fuel loss. And the hunt continues, so many companies were forced to abandon the use of oil depots," explained the director of A-95.

He also drew attention to the fact that E5 is non-standard for Europe, where E10 has been introduced, so European companies need to produce gasoline separately for Ukraine, and, for example, the Romanian oil company Rompetrol refused to do so due to the lack of technological capabilities.

"To make E5, Europeans ask for about 50 kopecks per liter. It's not much, but they ask for it anyway. Therefore, in general, it will be cheaper and easier to switch to E10. Moreover, it is less capricious to storage and transportation conditions," the expert noted.

In his opinion, the market will need a maximum of a month to switch to E10, but the decision depends on the government and parliament.

He noted that one way or another, bioethanol production capacities in Ukraine are gradually increasing, pointing, in particular, to the construction of a bioethanol plant by the OKKO gas station network with a capacity of over 80 thousand tons per year.

"OKKO is building a plant that will double the production of bioethanol, which is currently about 90 thousand tons per year. There are other projects. I think that within two years we will have 0.5 million tons of bioethanol per year. And we will also see lobbying for both E30 and E40," Kuyun predicted, noting that such plants are a platform for market development after the war.

Regarding the price of fuel after May 1, he drew attention to its stability (a certain increase in the cost price was offset by a decrease in the price of oil - EP), but suggested that it may increase in the future.

"Now we have an increase in the price of oil - 10% plus, and accordingly, wholesale prices have gone up. I think that there will be no increase in fuel prices for 2-3 weeks due to a margin of safety, and then everything will depend on external factors. The markets are also reacting to our news about the end of the war," the director of A-95 summed up.

As reported, the mandatory addition of bioethanol to gasoline with an octane rating of less than 98 from May 1 is provided for by Law No. 3769-IX of June 4, 2024 (with the exception of fuel for the needs of the Ministry of Defense, the State Reserve and for the creation of minimum reserves of oil and petroleum products).

The owner and CEO of the Parallel group of companies, Oleksandr Dubinin (Parallel gas station network), in a blitz interview with Energoreform, noted that a large part of the market gasoline with bioethanol will be supplied with ready-made products from European refineries, and the Ukrainian infrastructure is not yet developed enough for this.

For his part, the CEO of the OKKO group of companies, Vasyl Danylyak, in a comment to the Interfax-Ukraine agency, assured that there will be no collapse at gas stations from May 1 due to E5. He also indicated that initially the filling stations will import the finished petroleum product with bioethanol, and then, "step by step, all operators will do it themselves."

According to Serhiy Kuyun, drivers should refrain from refueling their cars at filling stations with frankly dumping prices and in so-called "barrels", since there are doubts about ensuring the quality of E5 fuel. The expert explained that due to the hygroscopicity of bioethanol, which over time can lead to the separation of fuel into alcohol, water and low-octane gasoline, it is necessary to clean the tanks at oil depots and gas stations, fuel trucks, and in the future constantly monitor using special water markers.
"In large networks, this work has been going on for at least the last month. Headquarters for rapid response to various situations have been created. That is, no issue will be left without attention. Honestly, I don't know what the so-called economy networks and other peripheral players are doing," the director of A-95 noted.

Gas stations have maintained and continue to maintain the price of fuel as of May 1. Gasoline with the addition of 5% bioethanol is marked E5 in the receipts.

Source: https://interfax.com.ua